Over the past five years, and nine of the last 10, the first overall pick at the NFL Draft has been either a quarterback or a pass rusher. ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. doesn’t see that trend ending in 2019.
Kiper’s first mock draft of the new year is out, and it’s got Ohio State edge rusher Nick Bosa earning top honors. The former Buckeye would be an immediate boost to the Cardinals’ pass rush, giving Arizona and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury a pocket-crumpling pair of blitzing bookends between Bosa and All-Pro Chandler Jones.
Bosa-to-Glendale isn’t a particularly bold prediction; Kiper’s just the latest draftnik to mock the talented pass rusher at No. 1 overall — both Pro Football Focus and SB Nation’s Dan Kadar each predicted a warm desert climate for the serial quarterback harasser this week. But Kiper isn’t one-and-done with defense at the top of his draft. Each of his next three picks, from the 49ers to the Raiders, feature an elite defensive player headed to a rebuilding team.
That starts with Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen, who would immediately become the highest Josh Allen ever drafted by earning a selection at the 49ers No. 2 slot. He’s followed by beefy Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who would join Leonard Williams in the trenches with the Jets. And Jon Gruden’s tanking would earn its first reward outside of utterly frustrating the residents of Oakland — LSU cornerback Greedy Williams.
That would be a major shift from 2018’s draft, which saw two quarterbacks snapped up in the first three picks. But don’t worry — Kiper still rates a handful of franchise passers earning Day 1 grades. Including ...
Kyler Murray, who goes to the Dolphins
Murray, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who has the opportunity to be a first-round draft pick in both baseball and football, heard his name called at the No. 13 pick in Kiper’s first mock of 2019. That made him the second quarterback selected in the simulation, behind one of the men he beat out for college football’s top honor. Ohio State passer Dwayne Haskins slides into the sixth overall pick, moving from Columbus to north New Jersey to become the Giants’ quarterback of the future.
Only one other QB earned a first round grade from Kiper, and it wasn’t big-armer Missouri passer Drew Lock. Instead, Duke signal caller Daniel Jones walks to the podium on Thursday night after being selected by the Patriots with the 29th pick of the draft. There, he will sit behind Tom Brady for three seasons, then be traded away to a West Coast team after Brady declares he’s capable of playing until “the heat death of the universe.”
The Packers fill their two biggest needs
Green Bay sent a clear message about contending through Aaron Rodgers’ last act as a quarterback by firing longtime head coach Mike McCarthy in December. Kiper sees the club giving his replacement Matt LaFleur a pair of weapons that will fill the two biggest holes on the team’s roster.
That starts at the No. 12 slot, where the Packers pick up Clemson defensive end Clelin Farrell. The Green Bay pass rush was better than expected in 2018, but with Clay Matthews
a) facing free agency, and
b) old enough to have once been the face of Fathead house stickers(tm)
and with a roster that can’t quite count on Nick Perry or Kyler Fackrell to put together consistent Pro Bowl-level performances, adding a powerful pass rusher who can play on the end or at linebacker would be a boon.
The team faces a similar situation at wide receiver, where Davante Adams remains great but Rodgers would probably like to avoid facing multiple games where Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are his other starting targets. Kiper remedies that by mocking electric Ohio State wideout Parris Campbell to the smallest of the NFL’s small markets with the 31st pick of the draft (traded by the Saints last spring).
The Raiders stock up on playmakers
No team in the league has more draft capital than Oakland, who famously sold off stars Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper in order to fuel Gruden’s rebuild in some undetermined location next fall. Kiper has the club taking 6’3 prototype cornerback Williams with its own pick, then using the selections gleaned from the Cowboys and Bears in the second half of the first round to add some punch to 2018’s 28th-ranked offense.
That starts with Marquise Brown, the wide receiver who parlayed two seasons at Oklahoma into a prolific stretch that saw him boost two different Heisman campaigns. While he’s a slight target at 5’10 and 170 pounds, he’s an absolute burner who was responsible for 2,413 receiving yards, 17 touchdowns, and a ridiculous 18.3 yards per catch in his two years in Norman.
He’s joined by Alabama tight end Irv Smith Jr., who would complement the team’s leading target Jared Cook. That duo would give the club a pair of dynamic playmakers up the seam, pairing with Brown to give Derek Carr a revamped offense and the chance to prove he can be a successful quarterback when not forced to wander the bombed-out wasteland that was Gruden’s 2018 Raiders roster.
Kiper’s draft is pretty similar to Kadar’s. The duo each have the same players in their top six, with only a flip at No. 4 and No. 5 separating the two experts. They each see the Packers going pass rusher/playmaker and believe the Raiders will add at least one high-value target to their receiving corps
Kadar is more bullish on this year’s crop of passers, slotting four quarterbacks in the first 13 picks while Kiper only sees two in his first 28 picks. And Kiper believes T.J. Hockenson and not Noah Fant will be the first Iowa tight end selected in 2019. There’s still several months and approximately one million workouts left before this year’s draft falls into place, and this is just a series of best guesses based on past performance and logic — two functions that make it nearly impossible to figure out what Gruden is going to do.
Plus, keep in mind Kiper’s first mock draft of 2018 had Wyoming QB Josh Allen going No. 1 overall, so it’s not like this whole thing is a science.