We're now in Week Infinity of the (Kevin) Love Affair and the Timberwolves' star is still in Minnesota. Last year's trade deadline is behind us. This year's draft is behind us. The rush of free agency is even behind us.
Two NBA benchmarks remain: the dead period before the start of the season and the buildup to next February's trade deadline. If nothing can be worked out by then, Minnesota faces the extremely likely scenario of Love fleeing elsewhere without getting anything in return.
Now's a good time to play catch-up on where we stand and what happens going forward.
Why does Kevin Love want to be traded?
Love's discontent dates back to his damaged relationship with former general manager David Kahn. Despite playing with horrible rosters, Love improved tremendously over the course of his rookie contract and was up for an extension just after the 2011 lockout ended. A new rule was just put in place limiting each team to one five-year maximum extension for one of its young players. Love felt he deserved to be that guy and his production certainly backed him up, but Kahn refused to give in because he wanted to save the honor for Ricky Rubio, who had yet to play a single minute in the NBA.
Angered, Love ultimately demanded a third-year opt-out on a four-year deal, which would allow him to become a free agent sooner. The Timberwolves surprisingly relented and here we are.
There are differing perspectives on the 2011 negotiations. One popular narrative is that Kahn approached Love in the training room after a loss and shoved the four-year offer in his face demanding he sign it, which angered Love. Kahn's account is less dramatic: In an interview with Jerry Zgoda of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, he suggested owner Glen Taylor didn't want to commit to Love for five years and the two sides compromised on the third-year opt-out.
Regardless, Love's bitterness never went away even as Kahn faded into the background and was eventually fired. Love made his feelings known in an explosive interview with Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski in December of 2012, a year in which Minnesota's playoffs hopes were dashed with a series of injuries. The countdown to Love's free-agent year in 2015 has been on since.
With Kahn deposed, winning -- or the lack thereof -- is at the core of Love's frustration. He's yet to make the postseason like so many of his other peers thanks in large part to the poor foundation Kahn built. New president and coach Flip Saunders has done what he could to mend fences from the Kahn era, but it's been all for naught because the Timberwolves have yet to achieve any real success.
Love has not commented publicly on the manner, but every report suggests the Timberwolves already know he intends to leave after next season.
Is Kevin Love worth the fuss?
Yes ... with a slight caveat. Love is a devastating offensive force, the kind of player who makes others better just by orbiting around his presence. He finished third in player efficiency rating last year, behind only Kevin Durant and LeBron James. While PER is a very incomplete measure, it speaks to Love's incredible offensive impact. He's one of the league's most efficient scorers, flashing an underrated post game and a three-point shot that makes him nearly impossible to guard. He's also one of the league's best rebounders and passers for his size, especially on outlet feeds.
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Much like Dirk Nowitzki, Love can prop up other more limited players just with his mere presence. He attracts so much attention from defenders that other players, particularly poor shooters, find more openings. Nearly every player on the Timberwolves was significantly more efficient playing with Love than without him. Minnesota outscored teams by 4.4 points per 100 possessions with Love in the game and were outscored by more than 6 per 100 possessions with him on the bench. The criticism that he can't be any good because his teams don't win is unfair, though it still persists in some league circles.
The one caveat is that Love is a bad defensive player. Analysts disagree on how bad he is, but they all agree he's not good. Moderates suggest Love is at least an outstanding defensive rebounder and positions himself more effectively than he did earlier in his career. Their case is bolstered by the on/off numbers: There was barely any difference in the Timberwolves' defensive efficiency when Love sat. Others point to Love's inability to protect the rim, his slow foot speed and lack of effort with transition defense as major deficiencies that dramatically affect his value.
Still, Love is one of the best players who'll ever be readily available on the trade market.
OK, so why is this taking so long?
Few in the league can gauge Minnesota's intentions. Many are skeptical that Saunders is actually seeking out a new destination for Love. Others believe he'd prefer NBA-ready players who'll help Saunders The Coach field a competitive team next season instead of traditional rebuilding pieces like draft picks and young talent. The Timberwolves' indecision is the biggest reason a deal hasn't happened yet.
In Saunders' defense, this is a very difficult decision. Small markets like Minnesota have limited means to acquire talent like Love, so it's hard to part with that kind of player even if he clearly wants out. Saunders also surely draws inspiration in from his Northwest Division rival Portland, who surprisingly emerged as an elite team and quenched any fears that star LaMarcus Aldridge would seek to leave. Based on point differential, last year's Timberwolves were the best non-playoff team in NBA history. Even in a loaded West, there's some reason to believe that with better luck and health, the Timberwolves can get out to a fast start that calms Love's nerves.
Even if Saunders is actively seeking a new destination for Love, there's an internal dilemma about the kind of trade he'd want. This is a franchise that hasn't made the playoffs since 2004 and is less inclined to go through another long rebuilding effort. That means the Timberwolves may prefer more established players in return, even if it limits their ceiling. The internal dilemma is best typified by the fact that Saunders is both the coach and GM, positions that are often in direct conflict with each other.
There's also a belief that Love himself isn't making this any easier because he's seeking control over his destination. Teams are reluctant to offer significant assets because there's a risk Love will leave when he's a free agent next year. The new CBA made it financially painful for players to sign extensions before their contracts end, so it'd be highly unlikely to see Love make an immediate long-term commitment to his new destination. The most likely avenue is that Love, like Chris Paul did upon being traded to the Clippers, agrees not to opt out of his contract next year, giving him two years with his new club.
Which teams lead the chase?
Three teams dominate the rumors: the Celtics, Warriors and Cavaliers. Boston has been trying to acquire Love for months, but while it has loads of draft picks thanks in large part to last year's blockbuster Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett trade with the Nets, the Timberwolves appear to prefer more NBA-ready players. It's also unclear if Love is willing to commit to Boston, since he'd be on a rebuilding roster that isn't any better than his current Timberwolves one. (The key difference: the Celtics play in the watered-down Eastern Conference.)
Possible Love Deals
Possible Love Deals
The Warriors have long been the favorite and are a preferred destination for Love, but may be sabotaging their own chances by refusing to include promising shooting guard Klay Thompson in a trade package. Golden State's stance: Thompson complements Stephen Curry, especially defensively, and subtracting him while adding a negative defender in Love will make the team less well-rounded.
Saunders reportedly covets Thompson for many of the same reasons the Warriors do, but one could argue both teams are taking a curious stance on him. Thompson is a limited player who has yet to develop the passing and dribbling skills to be a featured player. He only shot 44 percent from the field despite his sweet stroke mostly because he takes difficult shots. He's also up for an extension as soon as this fall, and given the contracts other shooting guards have received, he'll surely receive a maximum offer sheet next summer if he doesn't sign. He won't be much cheaper than Love and is a less accomplished player.
The dilemma in Cleveland is even trickier. Love was previously unwilling to commit long-term to Cleveland, but LeBron James signing there changed his mind. James is 29 and on a short-term contract, so there's immense pressure to team him with another superstar like Love. However, such a deal is likely to cost Cleveland Andrew Wiggins, this year's No. 1 draft pick. It's almost unprecedented to see a No. 1 pick traded this quickly, especially one with Wiggins' upside. Some believe the Cavaliers need to keep Wiggins to ensure the long-term sustainability of the franchise, even if Wiggins isn't ready right away. On the other hand, James doesn't have all day and players like Love aren't usually available.
The reporting here is even murkier than with Thompson's status. Wiggins was off the table ... then he was on it ... and now he's back off again. The Cavaliers are reportedly planning to officially sign Wiggins to his rookie contract this week; once that happens, he cannot be traded for 30 days per CBA rules. That shouldn't be a huge concern, though, because executives often vacation in August, suspending many trade talks.
What is the most likely outcome?
The Cavaliers and Warriors both hope that Saunders will relent and accept trade packages that don't include Thompson or Wiggins. The Warriors could deal a combination of David Lee, Harrison Barnes and future draft picks while also providing the Timberwolves a spot to dump Kevin Martin's long-term contract. The Cavaliers can offer 2013 No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett, Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson and future draft picks.
Eventually, though, one team will surely need to put its prized asset on the table to get a deal done. It may not happen this week, this month or even until next February, but barring an unlikely blazing start, Love will eventually be traded. Cleveland appears to be the current favorite, but there's plenty of time for another team to jump into pole position.