UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch Preview
Jon Fitch will have one eye on B.J. Penn and the other on a welterweight title rematch against Georges St. Pierre Saturday at UFC 127.
Fitch, riding a five-fight win streak since losing to St. Pierre at UFC 87, is favored at every book tracked by SBNation odds provider OddsShark.com in the promotion's event in Australia.
And at -210 on the moneyline (bet $21 to win $10), he is a tempting pick, even against the dangerous Penn, who is fresh off that quick win over Matt Hughes (Penn is +170 at bodog). UFC President Dana White has already said the winner will be the No. 1 contender and in line for the next shot at the title later this summer.
"While the smart money is on Fitch, smarter money is on action where you can bet on whether the fight will end in a decision, submission or KO," said MMA specialist Jack Randall, who has called upsets in five straight MMA events.
"Fitch hasn't finished a fight in nearly four years (a choke of Roan Carneiro at UFN 10), so betting that the fight will end with a decision looks like a solid bet."
Not surprisingly, the fight is favored to go longer than 2.5 rounds (-365 at shops that book this type of MMA action).
While Penn vs. Fitch is the headliner, it is far from the only big matchup of the night as UFC 127 is loaded with great fights and great upset potential. Updated odds on every fight from 10 books, check out Odds Shark.
George Sotiropoulos (-500) vs. Dennis Siver (+300) - Australia native George Sotiropoulos will have the home crowd behind him as he takes on former German kickboxing champion Dennis Siver. Sotiropoulos has won eight straight fights, and has added a solid boxing element to his BJJ-based style.
He should improve to nine straight here with superior grappling technique, but Siver won't be a pushover; his lethal array of kicks will force Sotiropoulos to be alert at all times.
Kyle "KO" Noke (-225) vs. Chris Camozzi (+185) - Both Kyle Noke and Camozzi enter this match with four-fight winning streaks, and only one can make it five straight this Saturday. Camozzi's style consists of Muay Thai and Judo while Noke relies on a combination of wrestling and boxing. The more polished fighter, Noke has the edge in this one, and should be able to wear Camozzi down as the fight goes on.
Michael "The Count" Bisping (-340) vs. Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera (+260) - In this match featuring two of the best knockout specialists of the middleweight division, expect fireworks early and often. Both strikers can end this bout with one blow, but the winning blow is more likely to come from Michael Bisping.
Seven years younger at 31, Bisping has been extremely prepared and conditioned in his recent fights, and could have the extra energy to outlast Jorge Rivera.
Upset Watch: Jon Fitch (-210) vs. B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn (+170) - Jon Fitch is one of the best pure wrestlers in the world today, making him a very worthy favorite in this matchup. But if B.J. Penn is at his best, he has the tools to take this one.
A versatile fighter that is great in both stand-up boxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Penn is both a KO and a submission threat. Fitch won't leave many openings and is a frustrating opponent, but if Penn stays focused, he's got a great shot at an upset.