Favorites and darlings face each other today in the Round of 16, with South American nations Brazil and Chile vying for the chance to meet the Netherlands in the quarterfinals. The favorites, Brazil entered the tournament sharing their pedestal with Spain, but the European Champions' early upset has given Brazil the perch to themselves. Chile has become everybody's new second favorite team, employing an ambitious style of play that circumvents a number of the trite criticisms of the sport.
Says the defensive soccer fan.
Brazil, Going Forward: When Brazil's not counter attacking they are strongest on the left, the direction Kaká naturally favors and the site on which Robinho is commonly deployed. With Chile defender Gary Medel, who normally plays on the right of the back three, suspended along with central defender Waldo Ponce, the Chileans have a personnel weakness that compounds a tactical disadvantage that could see their defenders exposed. Once Brazil starts to exploit these advantages, their superior talent could make this a lopsided score.
One way Marcelo Bielsa can combat this is by having central midfielder Carlos Carmona, due to return for today's match, pay special attention to Kaká. Whenever the ball is being played to the Brazilian playmaker, Carmona needs to be there to keep Kaká from turning-up the field. Forcing Kaká to play the ball sideways won't kill all counters, but it will decrease Chile's exposure, giving Chile time to get back and defend and taking the ball out of Kaká's feet.
With the Real Madrid-man not as fast as he was pre-2008 knee operation, there is no longer as much of a risk of Kaká finding that next gear, blowing by Carmona, and threatening through the vacated space.
Chile, Going Forward: Humberto Suazo should be back for Chile, with the leading scorer in South American qualifying providing a needed penalty area presence that can take advantage of the work done by Jean Beausejour, Alexis Sanchez and (when he plays) Mark Gonzalez. Suazo, however, did not score in the World Cup qualifier played in Santiago, and while that took play almost two years ago, it may be our strongest data point when trying to determine what he can do against Lucio and Juan.
Instead of relying on Suazo, Marcelo Bielsa should look to Alexis Sánchez, the Udinese winger who will be opposite Brazilian midfielder Michel Bastos, who will be playing left back. With Robinho serving as Brazil's nominal left-sided attacking player, Bastos won't get the same type of help Maicon will get from Elano on the other side. Instead, Dunga may shade central midfielder Felipe Melo toward Sanchez's side, which could provide more space in the middle for the likes of Matías Fernández.
How The Match Turns: The first time Kaká and Brazil can convert on the counter, it creates a dynamic where Chile will have to continue pressing and further expose themselves to counters. Unless Chile can do something to stop the counters where they start, we could be in for a repeat of the two World Cup qualifiers.