Two years ago, I unveiled my preferred plan to abolish the NBA Draft. It will never happen: the draft is too big a draw, and the system works rather well as the NBA’s preferred cost-controlling competitive balance exercise to bring amateur players into the league without empowering them to make choices about where to work.
The draft is nefariously good at its job, and it won’t be dislodged without sustained outside pressure that it’s very hard to envision ever happening.
But let’s imagine the draft were replaced by a system like the one I outlined. How would it work in a year like 2019, with a relatively shallow pool of high-end prospects, one clear future superstar, and a bumper crop of star veteran free agents?
Read the full piece on draft abolition for the details of how the proposed system would work. Here are the bullet points.
- Rookies become free agents on July 1, same as veteran NBA players whose contracts are up.
- Every team gets two rookie exceptions per season in lieu of draft picks: a full rookie exception (worth 75 percent of the mid-level exception, or $6.9 million in Year 1 for 2019-20) and the minor rookie exception (equal to the biannual exception, or $3.6 million for 2019-20). These exceptions can each go to a single player or be broken up among multiple players.
- Teams can sign rookies using salary cap space up to a new rookie max (150 percent of the mid-level for Year 1, or $13.8 million in 2019-20). But you can only have three players on rookie deals above the full rookie exception level at a time.
- You can trade rookie exceptions for future years, similar to how draft picks are currently traded. Obviously, protections would not exist.
- You can sign rookies into cap space below the exception levels or to minimum contracts as is currently done with undrafted players.
In addition, I would propose more stringent trade rules surrounding rookies. All free agents are now subject to trade restrictions through the first big chunk of the season. I’d argue teams should be restricted from trading rookies under this proposed system for a full year.
With that all laid out, it’s time to theorize what would happen for rookies in 2019.
Zion Williamson would get a rookie max
It’s very clear that Zion Williamson, the best prospect since 2012 and maybe longer, would get a rookie max deal (four years, $59 million). The question is from whom.
Would the Knicks offer a max rookie deal with their precious cap space and trade restrictions when Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis are looming out there? (Of course, the Knicks’ entire pitch to the Pelicans in the Davis sweepstakes is based on having the No. 3 pick and future Mavericks picks.) Would Durant want to come to New York to play with a rookie? Would Irving, after his experience in Boston this season? Probably not.
So if the Knicks did land Williamson — who is reported to have wanted New York to win No. 1 overall in the lottery — in rookie free agency, would they then miss out on all the star veterans in free agency? Probably!
The Lakers have cap space ... and would absolutely not spend it on a rookie Williamson with dreams of trading for Davis or signing Kawhi Leonard, Irving, or Jimmy Butler active. Even if LeBron James is a big Williamson fan, the clock is ticking a little too loudly to add a 19-year-old co-star. (By the way, Williamson will still be 18 until July 6. He’s young even for a rookie.)
For both the Knicks and Lakers, one of the biggest draws of winning the No. 1 pick and rights to Williamson in the lottery was the ability to flip him in a trade for Davis. That doesn’t exist in this alternate system, so one presumes their interest in Williamson would be drastically reduced so long as All-NBA caliber free agents are in play.
Twelve other teams, including his actual next team (the Pelicans), would have the cap space to sign Williamson to a rookie max without making other moves. Some of those teams, like the Sixers, Clippers, and Jazz, likely have timelines and priorities that don’t mix with spending a significant chunk of space on Williamson. But all of these that did want him would have to compete for his services, just like they have to compete for free agents.
Would a team like the Grizzlies, who has the No. 2 pick in the draft in real life, be at a disadvantage? Maybe. But in the right hands, Memphis could build a franchise worth being in the mix. (Besides, the Grizzlies haven’t been particularly good in the draft over the last decade anyway: Jaren Jackson Jr. looks phenomenal, and likely No. 2 pick Ja Morant should be good. Before that, you really have to go back to Mike Conley to find a high-end success.)
So what team would Williamson pick if the obvious choice Knicks, Lakers, Clippers, and Sixers are off the table? Perhaps the Hawks, Nets, Mavericks, Bulls, or Kings. Or maybe the Clippers or Sixers would drastically remake their franchises around Williamson. Wouldn’t that be exciting? The possibilities are endless!
What about the other high-end rookies?
We’re giving short shrift to Morant, R.J. Barrett, Jarrett Culver, De’Andre Hunter, Darius Garland, Cam Reddish, and other top prospects. Their fates would be mighty interesting too. Let’s face it: there are no Williamsons most of the time. Players like Morant and Barrett would be more the norm in this new rookie free agency landscape.
To a degree, though, you can see free agency playing out for prospects of this caliber similar to the way it would Williamson. Teams with real hopes of landing established stars in free agency or the trade market wouldn’t focus on the high-end rookies, leaving teams at the lower end of the standings and better teams with cap space but realistic aspirations in play. You could really see Morant considering being Conley’s heir apparent in Memphis anyway, or the answer in Phoenix. The Warriors, Rockets, Bucks, and Raptors wouldn’t really have a shot at him without wholesale roster changes; the Knicks and Lakers wouldn’t seem to be interested unless everything else first fell apart.
The real danger to competitive balance might be found in the competition at the next tier. Since everyone has the same exception levels, great and/or big-market teams teams would have an advantage. But the cost in cap space and potential luxury tax payments is heavy enough that teams like the Warriors would think twice before offering a four-year, $25 million deal to a top-20 prospect like, say, Kevin Porter, Nas Little, or Bol Bol.
This is where the danger lies, but also the justice. The draft allows teams to treat players on their rookie deals like affordable chits you pile up in service of turning them into something greater. A free agent rookie system would force teams to put real thought and skin in the game.
It’s not perfect, but it seems a better option than incentivizing being awful and letting luck decide who lands generational stars and who doesn’t.