Daniel Carlson was supposed to be a reliable special teams dynamo for the Vikings — a fifth-round draft pick who could bring stability to the team’s tumultuous kicking game. Instead, he won’t even get the chance to disappoint Minnesotans with a shanked kick this postseason.
Carlson’s 0-3 field goal performance in Green Bay Sunday included a pair of missed game-winners that ultimately doomed the NFC North rivals to a 29-29 draw. He barely had a day to pack up his locker before being informed the team would be signing Dan Bailey and moving on without him for obvious reasons:
Zimmer asked why the team released Daniel Carlson
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) September 17, 2018
"Did you see the game?"
Was it an easy decision?
"Yep, very easy."
That’s both entirely brutal and completely understandable for a franchise that’s known few days of sunshine in a two-decade crapstorm of special teams failure. Carlson had made an incredible 92 field goals in his college career at Auburn, converting on more than 80 percent of his tries. In two games with the Vikings, he went 1 of 4 and effectively cost his team half a game in the standings.
But that’s what being a Viking does to most normal kickers. It’s a soul-sucking vortex of disappointment that all started with the league’s first South African player.
Carlson continued a rich tradition of high-stakes collapse that dates back to Gary Anderson
Anderson was a journeyman 39-year-old kicker from Parys, South Africa, when he signed with Minnesota in 1998. The longtime Steeler didn’t have much of a leg, but he was an accurate professional who made sense for a Vikings team loaded with offensive weapons. Then, for 17.95 games, he was perfect.
Anderson had made 122 consecutive kicks when he lined up a 38-yard attempt that would have given the Vikings a 30-20 lead with just over two minutes to play in the NFC Championship Game. Instead, his first miss in nearly two years sailed just left of the upright, giving the Falcons enough space to tie the game in regulation, win in overtime, and then get crushed by the Broncos in Super Bowl XXXIII.
Minnesota kickers have never been the same. One year after his perfect kick, Anderson made just 19 of his 30 field goal attempts. His chance at redemption in 2001’s NFC title game was negated by a 41-0 blowout where Minnesota never even attempted a field goal. He’d eventually be replaced by a long line of temporary replacements that included Doug Brien, Aaron Elling, and even his 1999 NFC Championship counterpart Morten Andersen.
But the Vikings’ most recent failures have been a product of valuing potential over proven production
None of those names stuck until the club stole Ryan Longwell away from the Packers in 2006. Longwell was consistent and reliable and, most importantly, solid in the postseason even if he didn’t get many opportunities. He made all 12 of his kicks, 10 extra points and two field goals, in three playoff games with the Vikings. But he wasn’t exciting, and he was 38 years old in 2012, so they released him in favor of Blair Walsh, a rookie sixth-round draft pick with a booming leg and mile-high expectations despite making just 60 percent of his field goals in his senior year at Georgia.
Walsh proved worthy of his draft status with an All-Pro rookie year. Four seasons later he’d lead the league in field goals for the second time in his life, but he’d end the year much better known for one of the six kicks he missed. The young veteran had already made three field goals on a negative-6 degree day in Minneapolis when the Seahawks came to town for a Wild Card matchup. A fourth field goal — this one from 27 yards with just 26 seconds to play — would have given his team a 12-10 lead in the waning moments of the game.
Instead, this happened:
Walsh stuck out half of the following season in purple and gold, but was clearly affected by the mistake; three missed kicks (2 XP, 1 FG) at the tail end of a four-game losing streak led to his release in Minnesota. His removal led to Kai Forbath’s promotion. While Forbath was perfectly cromulent as a field goal kicker, his shaky extra point record — eight misses in 23 games — once again led the Vikings to look to a hot, potential-filled kicker from the SEC to boost the team from Day 3 of the draft.
This time, the strategy was an even bigger failure.
But Dan Bailey’s been waiting for an opportunity like this
Carlson won’t crush Minnesota’s postseason hopes this January. Instead, that inescapable omen will fall to Bailey, who agreed to a deal with the Vikings after Carlson’s release.
Bailey was a stalwart for the Cowboys, who unexpectedly released him this preseason in favor of 28-year-old Brett Maher, who had no previous regular-season experience. Bailey, the seven-year veteran, currently ranks second in NFL history after making more than 88 percent of his career field goal attempts. He’s made at least three 50-plus-yard field goals in each of his last six seasons. His 67.5 percent success rate from that distance is better than veteran stars like Adam Vinatieri (63.5 percent), Jason Elam (60 percent), and Sebastian Janikowski (55 percent).
His track record made him a commodity for needy teams, but Bailey took his time before choosing his new team.
Vikings are signing former Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, per source. Bailey had turned down four offers since start of season.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 17, 2018
Waiting until Monday gave him the opportunity to sign with a needy contender, and he’ll have some leeway in Minnesota.
But there’s reason to believe he may not be able to reach the great heights he’d cruised at while with the Cowboys. Bailey’s 2017 saw him fight off back and groin injuries that resulted in a career-low 75 percent success rate on field goals (fun fact: that worst-ever number was still as high as or higher than two of Walsh’s seasons in Minnesota). He only attempted a single field goal during the preseason — a 35-yarder — before being cut loose for a journeyman from the Canadian Football League.
But perhaps the biggest strike working against Bailey’s comeback is that he’s a Viking now, and Minnesota kickers are only allowed great seasons if they’re capped by sorrows as deep and dark as the Mariana Trench. Bailey could be the reliable leg on whom the Vikings have been waiting for two decades.
Or, if Minnesota’s history is any indication, he’ll collapse in upon himself like a dying star, taking the Vikings’ entire solar system down with him.